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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.