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A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."